In the current 2018/19 season, sunflower oil production in Ukraine will peak following a bumper crop of some 15.5 MMT. Abundant commodity supply combined with pressure from the global oilseed sector has provoked a slump in sunflower oil prices. So, they have lost roughly USD 76/MT since the season’s beginning, currently testing new lows, reports UkrAgroConsult.
The current season features an increasingly significant impact of related vegoil markets, where global production is also on the rise (soybean oil – up 4% on the year, palm oil – up 4.3%) with a consequent slump in product prices.
According to November’s USDA report, India will reduce sunflower oil consumption and imports by 0.6 MMT and 0.35 MMT, respectively, though remaining a key importer of the Ukrainian product. At the same time, the respective figures for soybean and palm oils are expected to increase.
Thus, sunflower oil exports in the first two months of MY 2018/19 were down almost 25%.
The second biggest importer of the Ukrainian product – the EU – is not expected to cut sunflower oil purchases in the 2018/19 season. Noteworthy is that this market absorbed some 20% of total exports last (2017/18) season.
What markets will have main exporters of sunflower oil to compete for?
Full version of the article is available to subscribers for weekly market report “Black Sea Vegoils” by UkrAgroConsult.
Analytical report "Black Sea Vegoils" contains detailed analysis of the latest trends in oilseeds/vegoils/meals exports, palm oil imports, supply and demand balances with breakdown by crop as well as crop conditions and progress in planting/harvesting in the countries of Black Sea Region.
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